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Wednesday, December 19, 2007

Russia: An Energy Superpower?

If the United States (US) hopes to maintain stability of the world’s energy producers, it must quickly and decisively use its influence as the leading energy consumer to reign in Russia’s imperialistic energy policies. Over the past decade the US has turned a blind eye on Russia’s growing use of energy as a geopolitical tool. As a result, Russia has gone unchecked when using its hold on vital energy supplies to influence the internal politics of the Baltics and former Soviet States; a political use of energy which it is also poised to use against the US and European Union (EU). In an effort to strengthen influence over its neighbors, Russia has raced to position itself as an “Energy Superpower”; a position many believe is unsustainable. With the former Soviet and Baltic States already dependent on it for energy and the EU not far behind, collapse of the Russian energy infrastructure could lead to instability in other energy producing nations and eventual collapse of the world economy.

Russia has been racing to position itself as an “Energy Superpower” since Vladimir Putin took office on December 31, 1999. As early as the summer of 2005, J. Robinson West was warning of Putin’s alarming vision for the Russian energy sector in his National Interest article, “The Future of Russian Energy”:

Vladimir Putin has grand designs for the Russian oil and gas industry. In the post-Cold War era, the design should be based on the huge hydrocarbon reserves that could return Russia to its past glory. Russia’s energy sector could be a source of power and prestige, to replace its once great military, now a shadow of its former glory.

Under Putin, the Kremlin has already purchased majority stake in many private energy companies, effectively nationalizing the Russian energy industry. The Kremlin has also begun pushing out international corporate concerns via a combination of contract renegotiations and environmental sanctions (Rodriguez, 2007a). According to Vladis Lumans, professor of history and politics at the University of South Carolina Aiken, energy is Russia’s only real strength:

Energy is probably the most important card Russia has in its international and domestic power deck; internally it determines who will run Russia. It is Russia’s main economic asset. ... In foreign policies Russia is using energy resources to establish its importance in Western Europe and in former Soviet republics (Lumans, personal interview, 2007).

In a move reminiscent of the Soviet Era, the Kremlin has promoted the state run energy giant Gazprom to the position of “National Energy Champion,” in an apparent effort to consolidate and centralize national power in the Russian energy sector. Gazprom has the lead in most international energy deals and is the primary developer, refiner, transporter and exporter of Russian energy supplies.

Recently having taken control of a portion of the Arctic the size of Western Europe, the Russians have gone on to lay out plans for establishing a permanent military presence in the Mediterranean; something not seen since the end of the Cold War (Winik, 2007). Both actions appear to be obvious moves designed to wrest control of additional energy resources and protect vital energy shipping lanes. Scientific teams directed by the Kremlin are taking the lead in gaining formal control of the additional 10 billion tons of oil and natural gas found in this new Arctic territory. Addition of these huge reserves would ensure Russia’s place in the world as second only to Saudi Arabia in energy production and first in overall energy reserves. Highlighting a lack of US efforts in Russian containment, this huge addition in Russian energy reserves is largely made possible by the United States’ refusal to ratify the UN’s Law of the Sea Treaty. This treaty, which the US alone has refused to sign for the past 13 years, defines the rights of nation states to previously unclaimed stretches of undersea real estate. By refusing to sign, the US will be unable to sit in on negotiations aimed at internationalizing these newly accessible reserves, allowing the recent Russian annexation of Arctic territory to go unchallenged by the US (Rodriguez, 2007b).

Since the fall of the former Soviet Union, the United States and its Western allies have largely discounted Russian global and regional influence. By doing so, they have allowed Russia to pursue imperialistic geopolitical policies which are both a detriment and danger to its regional neighbors and the world at large. In her 2007 article, “Containing Russia,” former Ukrainian Prime Minister Yuliya Tymoshenko, makes the argument that the West has lost its chance for leverage with an enfeebled Russia desperate for help from abroad. Due to the current rise in oil and energy markets, Russia has found itself newly imbibed with cash and no longer in need of outside assistance. In fact, the opposite is true. Russia has under taken policies to extend its own influence on Western interests by exerting political influence over the Baltics and former Soviet States, and increasingly, Western Europe (Tymoshenko, 2007).

Chief among these policies is Russia’s use of energy supplies to influence its neighbors. What might be called petro-politics have hit the Ukraine particularly hard. In the past two years, it has seen its economy battered, Westernization efforts stifled, and its government toppled; according to many observers, all as a direct result of Russian influence. In fact, repercussions from the gas deal which ended a Russian-Ukrainian energy stand-off, resulting from Gazprom’s temporary cutoff of vital gas supplies during the cold of New Year’s 2006, are still being felt. Mychailo Wynnyckyi, professor of sociology at the University of Kiev-Mohyla, directly relates former Prime Minister Yushchenko’s defeat in the 2006 Ukrainian elections to the gas deal (Myers & Kramer, 2006).

Other Baltic states have also felt the sting of Russian energy politics. Poland has seen energy supply transit fees dry up; this coming suspiciously close on the heels of Poland’s support for Ukraine’s Westernization efforts and its own movements for membership in the EU and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Russian construction of a pipeline under the Baltic Sea to replace that now running to Germany via Poland, has effectively cut Poland out of the Russian-European energy market, severely hampering an already struggling Polish economy.

Aside from Ukraine and Poland, most of the former Soviet republics embracing pro-Western ideals, have seen similar spikes in cost and cuts in supply. Former Soviet states pursuing more pro-Russian policies have seen continuation of their favorable Soviet Era energy pricing and supply deals.

More alarming than reestablishment of its influence over the former Eastern Bloc is Russia’s movement toward similar control in the West European and American markets. Europe already imports as much as 50 percent of its gas supply from Russia. This is set to increase dramatically with the completion of the Baltic Sea pipeline directly into Germany. In addition to gas supplies, Europe also imports 30 percent of its oil from Russia (Cohen, 2007). Even the United States, previously a stalwart of Russia containment, has inked preliminary deals to begin importing liquefied natural gas (LNG) from a Gazprom controlled project in the Barents Sea by 2010 (Weir, 2005).

However, all is not well in Putin’s Kremlin push to become an energy age superpower. Some believe any energy superpower status attained by Russia to be unsustainable. One such critic, Vladimir Milov, of the independent Russian Federation Institute of Energy Policy, exposes glaring faults in the Kremlin’s policies throughout a March 2007 article in the journal Social Sciences. Milov states that recent findings by the Institute directly contradict assertions by Putin and the Kremlin that hydrocarbon exports alone can act as the foundation for large scale infrastructure modernization and social projects. His research clearly finds that, “... in order to achieve this goal, it would be necessary to export no less than 40-50 tons of oil-equivalent per capita annum. Russia currently exports only 3 tons per capita annum. Even a full doubling of oil and gas production would result in only 10 tons per capita annum, far less than the 40-50 required to sustain current efforts (Milov, 2007).

Further aggravating Kremlin efforts are the stifling inefficiency and management issues plaguing its “National Energy Champion”. Having forcibly ended foreign investment and development in the energy sector, the Kremlin has caused vital international resource exploration and infrastructure assistance to vanish, leaving Gazprom to its own Soviet era vices.

The inefficiencies and environmental unsustainability of the lingering Soviet past have left infrastructure expansion and repair projects running far behind schedule. To make matters even worse, Gazprom has been actively investing throughout the economy, yet ignoring investment in its own core sector, energy. The company has recently invested in entertainment, media and other non-industry areas, while at the same time putting little, if any, new investment in infrastructure or exploration. The ongoing failures by Gazprom have left the Russian energy infrastructure in poor repair.

Despite glaring problems with Kremlin polices, energy accounted for 25 percent of Russian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as early as 2005 due to the ever increasing prices of the energy trade markets (Beehner, 2005). Oil and gas revenues and taxes accounted for as much as 50 percent of total federal Russian revenue during this same period (West, 2005). All indications are these figures have continually increased since, funding vital increases in state supported programs. These programs are responsible for much of the economic and social growth Russian citizens have come to depend on since the fall of the Soviet state. Sustainability of the modern Russian Federation state, its people, economy, society and military are, for better or worse, inextricably linked to stability in the global energy economy. Any major drop in energy prices would starve Russian society of vital capital sending it into a tailspin from which it may have no means of recovery.

Russia, it seems, may be pushing itself further and further into a corner. Continued modernization efforts require increasing energy export levels, which in turn mandate continued increases in infrastructure capacity and modernization. When one realizes that the modern Russian economy, military, government and society at large, all depend solely on revenue from energy exports, the fragility of the Russian Federation becomes apparent. A major drop, for any reason, in world energy prices would mean nearly immediate failure of modern Russia as a viable state. How would Putin and the Kremlin oligarchy react in such a situation? As funds from energy exports began drying up, would the Kremlin continue pumping ever scarcer resources into maintaining the infrastructure required for supplying its customers with energy? Would it restrict exports in an attempt to stop a deadly hemorrhage of resources and force price concessions? With their own economies at stake and their people freezing in the cold of winter, how would the world’s nations react as the life blood of vital energy supplies were forcibly withheld by an increasingly isolated and belligerent Russia?

Alarmingly, other anti-Western energy producing nations, an informal “Axis of Oil”, have begun patterning themselves after Russia; funding necessary state programs and development with funds derived solely from state sale of energy reserves (Leverett & Noel, 2006). Any failure of the energy markets would affect them just as acutely. Such failures could cause an internal collapse in key regional powers and energy producers around the world; with Venezuela and Iran, swaths of Africa, and others, suddenly experiencing social upheaval and economic collapse. With China, India, the EU and US, all largely dependent on these anti-Western nations for vital energy supplies, disruptions could cause further economic and political instability, leading to general worldwide economic collapse.

Russia’s infiltration of global energy markets and control of vast untapped reserves make it vital to world stability. Any shift in internal politics or collapse of infrastructure would lead to an immediate and acute energy crisis for the world. As long as the US continues to allow Russia to expand its influence ever deeper into Europe, Asia and the US itself, the threat of any problems with Russian energy delivery grows more critical. Washington must use its influence to moderate Moscow’s policies and to demand more transparency and access to Russian markets for international companies. Only through the stability of international cooperative exploration of Russia’s vast energy reserves, can the world hope to safely depend on her into the coming century.


References

Beehner, L. (2005, October 28). Is Russia’s economy running out of energy? Council on Foreign Relations Backgrounder. Retrieved December 7, 2007, from http://www.cfr.org/publication/9119/is_russias_economy_running_out_of_energy.html

Cohen, A. (2007, November 5). Europe’s strategic dependence on Russian energy. Backgrounder, 2083. Retrieved November 27, 2007, from http://www.heritage.org/Research/Europe/upload/bg_2083.pdf

Leverett, F., & Noel, P. (2006). The new axis of oil. National Interest, 84, 62-70. Retrieved November 6, 2007, from http://sks.sirs.com/cgi-bin/hst-article-display?id=SMYDISCUS-0-5779&artno=0000249940&type=ART&shfilter=U&key=&res=Y&ren=N&gov=N&lnk=N&ic=N

Milov, V. (2007). Can Russia Become an Energy Superpower? Social Sciences, 38(1), 23-32. Retrieved November 6, 2007, from http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=aph&AN=24532821&site=ehost-live

Myers, L., & Kramer, A. (2006, March 30). Gas deal roils Ukraine and may have cut leader's vote. New York Times, A.3. Retrieved October 21, 2007, from http://proquest.umi.com/pqdweb?did=1012042331&Fmt=7&clientId=67495&RQT=309&VName=PQD

Rodriguez, A. (2007, January 13). Russia pursues policy to control its own energy resources. Chicago Tribune, n.p. Retrieved October 21, 2007, from http://sks.sirs.com/cgi-bin/hst-article-display?id=SMYDISCUS-0-5779&artno=0000258124&type=ART&shfilter=U&key=&res=Y&ren=N&gov=N&lnk=N&ic=N

Rodriguez, A. (2007, June 9). Russia aggressively pursues claim to vast, unowned Arctic deposits. Chicago Tribune, n.p. Retrieved October 21, 2007, from http://sks.sirs.com/cgi-bin/hst-article-display?id=SMYDISCUS-0-5779&artno=0000262373&type=ART&shfilter=U&key=&res=Y&ren=N&gov=N&lnk=N&ic=N

Tymoshenko, Y. (2007). Containing Russia. Foreign Affairs, 86(3), 69-82. Retrieved November 6, 2007, from http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=aph&AN=24764722&site=ehost-live

Weir, F. (2005, Dec 28). Kremlin reasserts control of oil, gas; Russia, the world's second-largest oil producer, sees energy as a key foreign policy tool. The Christian Science Monitor, 01. Retrieved October 21, 2007, from http://proquest.umi.com/pqdweb?did=948566931&Fmt=7&clientId=67495&RQT=309&VName=PQD

West, J. (2005). The future of Russian energy. National Interest, Summer 2005(80), 125-127. Retrieved October 21, 2007, from http://sks.sirs.com/cgi-bin/hst-article-display?id=SMYDISCUS-0-5779&artno=0000217845&type=ART&shfilter=U&key=&res=Y&ren=N&gov=N&lnk=N&ic=N

Saturday, November 10, 2007

Ashley's Safari #001


Picture 075, originally uploaded by ikeik.

Ashley took this photo back in February. The more I've looked at it, the more I've realized just how great a shot it really is. I'm thinking about having a print made of it.

What do you think?

Tuesday, September 11, 2007

Move-On.org…can just move on…I’m done with them!

I've been a member of Move-On.org for a year or so now. I generally support groups who are working to increase dialog on important issues. While I don't always support the entire platform of such groups, I can overlook a few items if the general trust is positive. With that said…

I cancelled my Move-On.org membership yesterday.

The full-page ad taken out by Move-On in the Monday morning papers accusing General Petraeus of being disloyal and actually questioning his patriotism and commitment to America was completely unacceptable.

While I support the right of Free Speech, that right…just like all rights…comes with a bit of responsibility for the wielder. For Move-On to accuse a man who has spent his entire adult life protecting this country of being unpatriotic and disloyal?

Well…what else needs to be said…the liberal-nazi's live!

…and I can say that if I feel like it, because it's my right…General Petraeus has seen to that.

Other views on the General's tesimony and treatment:
http://toastie.st/2007/09/11/iraq-its-just-too-damn-late/
http://www.kowabunga.org/2007/09/kerry_tries_ti_get_it_right_on.html

Comment from MySpace


Toastie

Thanks for the link! I think the Q&A between Sen. Warner (who should command respect from both sides of the aisle) and Gen. Petraeus really summed up the situation in Iraq quite succinctly (and I hadn't seen the transcript at the time I wrote last night). Warner asked if America would be any safer as a result of our Iraq policy, and Petraeus said quite humbly that he was in no position to assert that, as his job was to focus on stability in Iraq, not to analyze how our actions to try to stabilize Iraq impact our overall security.

So I agree that Move-on has picked the wrong target in Gen. Petraeus. Unfortunately, Petraeus, like the soliders he commands, is just trying the do the best he can with a disastrous situation.

Posted by Toastie on September 12, 2007 - Wednesday at 3:16 PM

Sunday, August 05, 2007

Citizenship: Right or Privilege?

Why bestow a valuable and precious commodity like Citizenship upon someone simply for passing a test, or worse, simply because they were born in the right place at the right time?

Who deserves Citizenship more? The person born into a family that can trace its American entrepreneurial roots back 10 generations, or the immigrant who puts his life on the line serving in the military of his newly adopted country?

Who deserves the right of Citizenship more? The woman who scrambles across the border just in time to give birth to her fifth child? Or the lady who follows the law, patiently obtaining a visa before entering the country legally?

Who deserves the benefits of Citizenship more? The 30-year-old man who dropped out of high school for an illustrious career in pizza delivery and now depends on welfare to support himself, his equally successful wife and their four children? Or the immigrant who saved every penny earned for a decade to make the trip to the U.S. and who now owns a business which supports his extended family and puts all three of his children through college?

Who deserves the honor of Citizenship more? The erudite content to espouse the wisdom of their thoughts on the ills of national policy from the comfort of a tenured position within a prestigious university? Or the high school graduate tirelessly volunteering at the local soup kitchen content in the knowledge that they helped a neighbor enjoy a hot meal today?

Why should someone with no interest in supporting a nation be supported by that nation?

How is it wrong to ask that someone earn the privilege to be a Citizen? How is it ill conceived to believe that some form of service to one's nation and community be required before bestowing this highest honor and privilege?

Why shouldn't Citizenship be earned?

Monday, February 19, 2007

On Prejudice...

Prejudice, in its purist form, should be seen as the amazing Human ability that it is.

The capability to form a reasonably accurate opinion of an individual, situation, or what have you, within the split second it takes the Human mind to do so, is an amazing feat.

From just the briefest glimpse of an individual, the mind scans through all of its accumulated knowledge to form an accurate picture…based on past experience and learned knowledge…instantly identifying the individual as belonging to a certain group with all its assigned characteristics.

While Human prejudice isn't always a pretty thing, it is definitely one of the survival traits which helped us climb to the top of the food chain. It has developed over millions of years and should not be off-handily disposed off simply to fill in a P.C. checkbox.

Comments from MySpace
Awesome

Ha that's pretty cool. I bet the early humans were like "Oh God there goes a fuckin lion again...I know what his kind is like, and I don't take kindly to lions around here"

Posted by Awesome on February 20, 2007 - Tuesday at 10:01 AM



Ashley

Here is an article from apa.org that I thought you might find interesting.

Racial stereotypes can speed visual processing

http://www.apa.org/monitor/jan05/visual.html

Posted by Ashley on March 3, 2007 - Saturday at 7:48 PM



ikeik

That is a VERY interesting article. Sad though it is...it looks like the ol' human survival instinct is fully intact. It may be wrong to realize a gun is present faster when primed with the image of a black male, but can anyone really dispute that the very process which makes that possible is a survival instinct? Whether it's right or wrong now...the ability obviously has had its place in Human evolution. I still say we shouldn't toss out millions or years worth of ability.

Posted by ikeik on March 3, 2007 - Saturday at 8:01 PM

Diversity vs. Lawlessness

Let me preface my comments by saying that I am inspired by those who immigrate to our country legally. I welcome them. I call out to them to come in mass, for they are the only hope for the stagnant, apathetic attitude that grips most of our citizenship today.

Without the continued infusion of hard working, creative, hopeful and inspired, freedom seeking peoples, our nation will wither and die.

However, there is a process in place, flawed as it may be, which our laws govern. Therefore, to the question of diversity I say this:

Diversity yes. Lawlessness no.

Diversity is the very backbone of American society. Like an alloy, the synergy of our diverse societal components make us stronger than our individual parts; just as steel far exceeds the strength of iron. However, a society, just as with any complex system, can only be as strong as the bonds that hold it together. While some would suggest Freedom is the singular bond that holds our country in form, this simply isn't so.

Freedom holds our nation above others as a beacon, but it does not bind our society together or keep it from tearing itself apart; that force is law. The rule of law.

Without the rule of law, and in the face of Freedom, you have only anarchy. With anarchy, there is no nation…no country...no society.

To have a significant portion of our nation come about their citizenship by breaking the very rule of law that holds us together, threatens to destroy the very thing that our society is built on.

So to the would-be American, I say immigrate, but do so within the confines of the nation and society which you so long to be a part of.

Saturday, February 03, 2007

The Great American Loser

I'd like to know something. I'd like to know why it is that certain people get upset when someone says, "You should have to earn the assistance the government gives you."

I mean seriously, how is that asking too much? How is earning something a bad thing? Since when did it become a god given right to sit on your ass while others work theirs off in large part to support yours accumulating lard?

Why is a person villanized the moment they make the suggestion that an able bodied person should have to work? Why do we continue, as a nation, to support The Great American Loser? You know the people I'm talking about.

The Great American Loser can be over educated, or illiterate. They can be any color, race, sex, etc. They can be from any part of the country and originate from any strata of society. What ties them together into a social group is a single mind numbing belief. A belief that if they choose not to get up in the morning, the rest of us should give a damn and then work extra hard so that they can continue to eat, sleep, play video games, and procreate (which of course is also their "god given right").

They believe that just because they choose not to work or perform any productive activity whatsoever, is no reason they should be denied that steak for dinner, that Lexus for cruising, or that $3000 gaming PC for wasting away the afternoon.

The Great American Loser is also the first person to cry foul when asked by their government to perform a duty in support of the society which supports them. If called to jury, they call on their latest Medicaid check-up as the perfect excuse for being excused. If within earshot of the mention of higher taxes which might affect them, they think the speaker should be shot in the ear. If told, "No you can't buy beer or cigarettes on your EBT card.", they think you should be told, "You're fired!"

They are the losers who call into work every time they hear about a coworker who came down with the sniffles and quickly realize that they themselves must surely have contracted a brain tumor.

They are the losers who like to stand around at work shouting the wrongs of the government and the citizens who support it, while at the same time, asking to leave work early for their latest Social Security benefits review.

Yes you know them. You probably even work with one or two of them.

Why do we continue to put up with them? They have no buying power. They have no muscle power. They have little brain power.

In fact, the only power they have is the power of the vote. ...and in the vote lies the problem.

So I ask you, should the leech be given a vote as to which way the fish swims? Or should it just be happy that the fish continues to allow it to hang around, attached to it for the ride, while it sucks the fish dry of blood?

Isn't it time we forced the blood sucking parasites of American society to put-up or shut-up? Isn't it time we required able bodied citizens to contribute, or otherwise, loose that citizenship? Isn't it time we put an end to The Great American Loser?

Tuesday, January 30, 2007

The Ultra Right of Center Leftist Capitalistic Fascism view of Illegal Immigration


Illegal immigrants come to our country for the money they can make here. They make most of that money working at jobs which Americans...for the most part...don't want to do.

So how do we stop illegal immigration? How do we send those already here home? Simple...we take away their jobs. We take away their ability to make money. We take away their reason for being here.

To do that we only need to enforce laws which already exist. It is illegal to employ an illegal immigrant. Begin to enforce these laws, fine and imprison those who break these laws; at the same time provide an alternative workforce for these unwanted jobs.

How?

  1. Put a system in place to identify legal workers.
  2. Create a legal temporary worker program.
  3. Require those able bodied and receiving government assistance, or welfare, to fill these positions where possible.
You've now forced employers to stop hiring illegal immigrants. You've taken away the illegal immigrants reason for being here, or for coming here in the first place. They go home on their on...they have little choice. No need for mass round-ups. No need for huge expenditure to locate illegals. For the most part, they will just leave. You've replaced them with those willing to follow the rules, and those Americans not capable of finding other work.

How do you identify legal workers?
  1. Create a National ID card to replace the easily counterfeited Social Security Card for Citizens, along with an equivalent card for legal temporary workers.
  2. Establish a network, similar to the credit card network, where an employer upon hiring or interviewing a new employee, swipes the card to authenticate the legal worker status.
  3. Include holographic photo, finger print (or other biometrics) and encrypted smart chip technology in the ID cards.
Problem Solved.

Other benefits:

  1. ID card could also be required for delivery of any social programs such as welfare, free health care, etc. If, for example, an illegal did present themselves at a hospital emergency room. The staff would of course be required by law to treat them, but they would also be required to alert the proper government authorities who would then collect and deport the illegal.
  2. By requiring able bodied citizens to fill positions otherwise left vacant in return for extended government welfare, you reduce overall welfare costs, while providing low cost workers where needed, and a path to earn cash equity for those on welfare.
  3. Overall cost savings from reduced social benefit cost from illegal aliens, as well as a reduction in crime etc, related to illegal's activities provide additional cost savings.
  4. Increased income tax revenues when you have effectively eliminated the underground economy now funded by the illegals.
  5. Decreased flow of illegals across the border, help reduce threat of terrorist infiltration across border.